Our predictions of who is in and who is out

Well NASCAR fans, there are just four races left until the 2009 version of the Chase to the Championship gets underway beginning at the New Hampshire Speedway. The top 12 drivers in the point standings will compete for this years championship, a 10 race competition to see who will be crowned the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion for 2009. So we elected to examine the current point standing to see who we believe that Top 12 will be for this season by examining drivers averages at the next 4 race tracks which consist of Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and finally Richmond. Using these records as a basis of percentages and probabilities for these drivers, this article will pick the most likely Top 12.

• 1. Tony Stewart - Stewart is a lock to make the Chase and will be the first driver to be locked in after this weeks race at Michigan. He currently sits on top of the point standings, 260 points ahead of 2nd place Jimmie Johnson. Impossible for him not to make the Chase under any scenario. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Stewart has the top record at Richmond, 3rd at Michigan, 4th at Atlanta and 16th at Bristol. He has picked up a win, 12 Top 5's and 18 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks so it would be hard to think with the season he is having that he will falter at any of them. He may pick up another win in one of these races and is almost certain to finish in the Top 10 at all of them with the exception of Bristol. Projection : A Chase Lock

• 2. Jimmie Johnson - The three time defending champion is a lock to make a bid for his 4th straight championship this year. Although Johnson is sitting in 2nd place in the points, loop statistics indicate that he is having the best year of his career and only a few fuel mileage miscalculations have kept him from having as many as 6 wins. In looking at his last seven races at the next four tracks; Johnson is ranked 1st at Atlanta, 5th at Michigan, 10th at Richmond and 19th at Bristol. Jimmie has 5 wins, 9 Top 5's and 13 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. Jimmie could pick up two or three more wins at these up coming tracks with his worst track being Bristol. Projection : A Chase Lock

• 3. Jeff Gordon - The way he started the season, he looked to be at the top of the heap in the Sprint Cup Series when the Chase started. Gordon is still in 3rd in the point standings and that is probably about where he will end up at the end of the 26 races leading into the Chase. Questions linger about what a hard wreck did to his back last weekend and those will probably be answered this weekend at Michigan.  In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Gordon has the 2nd best record at Atlanta, 4th at Bristol, 9th at Richmond and 12th at Michigan. He hasn't won a race but has picked up 11 Top 5's and 19 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. Gordon has consistently finished in the Top 10 all season so I don't see him faltering at all in the next 4 races. Capable of winning a race or two in there also but not likely. Projection : A Chase Lock

• 4. Kurt Busch - Busch needs to concentrate on racing and pay less atention to personal feuds on the track. He let that get the best of him in a couple of races this year, that seen him go from certain Top 5 finishes to well a all so ran status. Still he has done enough over the first 22 races to be sitting in fourth in the points, 481 points out of the lead. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Busch has the 6th best record at Atlanta, 15th at Michigan, 17th at Richmond and 20th at Bristol. Kurt has picked up 3 wins but just 4 Top 5's and 11 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. Unless he kicks it up a notch or two, I can see him falling to 7th place in the point standings over the next four races but no lower. Projection : A Chase Lock

• 5. Denny Hamlin -  Hamlin is one of the hottest drivers in the series right now and has worked his way up to the Top 5 in points at this stage, 536 points out of first place. He has over come some wierd equipment malfunctions this year and finally picked up a win at pocono a couple of weeks ago. Hamlin seems to be hitting on all cylinders now entering the last 4 races before the Chase. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Hamlin has the 4th best record at Richmond, 7th at Bristol, 8th at Michigan and 11th at Atlanta. Denny hasn't picked up any wins but has 8 Top 5's and 13 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. I see him overtaking Busch in the point standings before the Chase starts but he will have his hands full holding off Edwards. Projection : A Chase Lock

• 6. Carl Edwards - Who would have thought after last season that Edwards would still not have won a race this 2009 season, I wouldn't be one of them. Still he has had a decent season and seems to be getting better as the season progresses. He has a real possibility of maybe finally picking up a win in the next four races at Michigan or Atlanta but we will have to wait to see. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Edwards has the best record at Michigan, 2nd at Bristol, 9th at Atlanta and 20th at Richmond. Carl has picked up 5 wins to go with has 9 Top 5's and 17 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. It would be hard to envision Edwards having any problems at any of the next four tracks except maybe Richmond so I see him leapfrogging his way all the way up to 4th in the points before the Chase starts at New Hampshire. Projection : A Chase Lock

• 7. Juan Montoya - If you would have told me that Montoya would be sitting this high in the points with 4 races to go at the beginning of the season, I would have checked to see what you had been smoking. He has had only one Top 5 all season and that shows you what consistent finishes can do for you. He has just ran a lot of nice steady races with about half of them in the Top 10. He has been red hot lately and in this sport, usually when your hot you stay hot for awhile but he will have his hands full trying to stay in 7th. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Montoya has the best luck at Bristol where he is ranked 18th, he is 29th at Atlanta and 35th at both Richmond and Michigan. Montoya has picked up just 1 Top 5 and 4 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. With his record at these upcoming tracks its hard to see him staying in 7th in the points but he has a 154 point cushion over 13th place. Projection : Out of the Chase

• 8. Kasey Kahne - Kasey has been sort of up and down all year but has been competitive with the new engine package that he has in his cars. I didn't have high expectations for him coming into the year so he is a pleasant surprise sitting in 8th but remember he is only 127 points out of 13th. He only has 9 Top 10 finishes on the year which is less then 50% which doesn't instill a lot of confidence in Kahne fans. Still he is on the inside looking out which is better then being on the outside looking in. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Kahne has the best luck at Bristol where he is ranked 9th, he is 18th at Michigan, 21st at Richmond and 22nd at Atlanta. Kahne has picked up two wins, 7 Top 5's and 4 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. I am not seeing him stay in 8th place in the points over the next 4 races but he should be good enough in a couple of those races to stay in the Top 12 in the points. Projection : In the Chase by a narrow margin

• 9. Ryan Newman - Ryan started the year off pretty hot like his teammate Stewart but he has stalled out as the season has progressed and finds himself fighting for a Chase spot. He still hasn't won a race and it seems like years since he has won one but like a few others in the Top 12, he has done just enough to keep himself in the Top 12 in points. He needs to get his act together in the next 4 races and get some decent finishes in a couple of them cause 13th place is just 100 points away and that guy is Kyle Busch. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Newman has the best luck at Richmond where he is ranked 8th, he is 14th at Bristol, 24th at Atlanta and 32nd at Michigan. Ryan has no wins, just one Top 5 and 9 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. Considering his record at the upcoming tracks, it is going to take a real effort on Newman's part to squeak into the Chase but he will. Projection : In the Chase by the narrowist of margins

• 10. Greg Biffle - Greg has been coming around as has all the Roush teams as the season reaches the critical Chase stage. Greg hasn't lit the series on fire yet this year but he has shown signs that he can compete with the best of them. He only has a 91 point margin over 13th place but he should be able to leap frog a couple of guys over him in the points and stay in the Top 10 by the start of the Chase. He has been pretty good at all of the upcoming tracks over his career. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Biffle has had his best luck at Michigan where he is ranked 9th, he is 10th at Bristol, 13th at Richmond and 14th at Atlanta. Biffle has not picked up any wins but does have 8 Top 5's and 13 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. He is one of the better drivers at the upcoming tracks and he should pick up a couple of spots in the standing when everything is done and over with. I see him as high as 7th. Projection : In the Chase

• 11. Mark Martin - Martin leads the series in wins at this stage of the game and it would be an absolute shame if he were to miss the Chase. Still Martin is not in the best of positions because of some bad races at the beginning of the season that on the most part were no fault of his own. His lead over 13th place is just 89 points which means one bad race and a good one by Kyle Busch drops him out of the Top 12 in all likelyhood. Has the best equipment in the series which should give him a slight advantage over everyone else. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Martin has had his best luck at Richmond where he is ranked 3rd, he is 8th at Bristol, 19th at Michigan and 26th at Atlanta. Martin has a win to go with 7 Top 5's and 11 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. This guy is just too good and has too good of equipment not to stack up a couple of decent finishes in the next 4 races. I see him finishing 9th in the points. Projection : In the Chase

• 12. Matt Kenseth -  After winning the first two races of the 2009 season, would you have ever thought that Matt would be in danger of not making the Chase this year?? Still at this stage he is sitting in 12th place in the points with a very unconfortable lead of just 58 points over a very good driver that is sitting in 13th. Kenseth has to be looking in his rear view mirror because a tarin is coming behind him. The good news is that Kenseth is a lot better at the upcoming tracks then some of the guys over him in the points. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Kenseth has had his best luck at Atlanta where he is ranked 3rd, he is 6th at Michigan, 12th at Bristol and 28th at Richmond. Matt has 2 wins to go with 10 Top 5's and 15 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. Two races will be key for Kenseth's Chase chances, Michigan and Atlanta. Roush cars have always excelled at those two tracks and it is there Kenseth should lock himself into the 2009 Chase. If he has bad races at either, he could be in toruble.  Projection : In the Chase by a narrow margin

• 13. Kyle Busch - Now nobody seen this guy not being in the Chase this year nor sitting in 13th place in the points at this junction of the season but guess what, he is. After winning 3 of the first 10 races this year, I saw him as a real threat to push Johnson for the Championship this year. He has just fallen off the cliff after those first 10 races and it seems like if he doesn't run up front, then he pouts and dooms himself to a bad finish. While other drivers can overcome adversity such as Johnson did at Pocono, Busch doesn't seem so inclined. He certainly hasn't done anything to improve his image on the track which means he doesn't have a lot of friends out there. In looking at the last seven races at the next four tracks, Busch has had his best luck at Bristol where he is ranked No 1, he is 2nd at Richmond, 10th at Michigan and 12th at Atlanta. Kyle has 4 wins to go with 12 Top 5's and 15 Top 10 finishes over the last 7 races at these tracks. Kyle has one of the best records of all drivers at all of the upcoming tracks so it would be hard to believe that you can keep him down too much longer. If this doesn't motivate him, nothing will and he will be left to wonder. Projection : In the Chase

• 14. Brian Vickers - Projection : Out of the Chase

• 15. Clint Bowyer - Projection : Out of the Chase

• 16. David Reutimann - Projection : Out of the Chase

• 17. Marcos Ambrose - Projection : Out of the Chase

Below is a chart of all the above mentioned drivers and their records at the next four race tracks. You can use the chart to have some fun on your own and predict your own Top 12 for the 2009 Chase to the Championship.

			Bristol
			Atlanta
			Richmond
			Michigan
Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
14	Brian Vickers	22	5	0	3	10	2589	-794
11	Brian Vickers	7	12.00	2	0	1	4	14.43
13	Brian Vickers	7	23.86	0	0	1	3	18.43
32	Brian Vickers	6	19.50	1	0	0	0	27.33
39	Brian Vickers	6	25.50	0	0	0	0	28.83
6	Carl Edwards	22	0	0	6	10	2830	-553
1	Carl Edwards	7	19.43	0	2	4	6	6.29
2	Carl Edwards	7	18.29	1	2	3	4	8.00
9	Carl Edwards	7	13.86	0	1	3	5	14.57
20	Carl Edwards	7	12.00	0	0	0	2	20.29
15	Clint Bowyer	22	0	0	4	9	2586	-797
6	Clint Bowyer	7	18.71	0	1	1	3	10.57
8	Clint Bowyer	7	15.43	0	0	0	4	13.71
11	Clint Bowyer	7	20.43	0	0	2	4	14.43
23	Clint Bowyer	7	17.00	0	0	0	1	23.00
16	David Reutimann	22	2	1	4	6	2530	-853
18	David Reutimann	5	17.60	0	0	0	1	20.20
20	David Reutimann	3	15.67	0	0	0	0	19.00
22	David Reutimann	5	18.20	0	0	0	0	21.20
40	David Reutimann	4	24.50	0	0	0	0	30.00
5	Denny Hamlin	22	0	1	7	10	2847	-536
4	Denny Hamlin	7	4.86	2	0	3	4	9.57
7	Denny Hamlin	7	20.43	0	0	2	4	12.57
8	Denny Hamlin	7	14.43	0	0	2	3	13.71
11	Denny Hamlin	7	14.00	0	0	1	2	16.14
10	Greg Biffle	22	0	0	7	10	2718	-665
9	Greg Biffle	7	9.71	0	0	3	4	13.86
10	Greg Biffle	7	16.29	0	0	2	4	13.57
13	Greg Biffle	7	18.14	1	0	1	2	16.14
14	Greg Biffle	7	9.57	1	0	2	3	18.86
3	Jeff Gordon	22	0	1	10	15	3041	-342
2	Jeff Gordon	7	8.29	1	0	3	6	6.43
4	Jeff Gordon	7	8.29	1	0	4	4	9.71
9	Jeff Gordon	7	8.86	1	0	2	5	14.86
12	Jeff Gordon	7	8.71	1	0	2	4	15.43
2	Jimmie Johnson	22	1	3	9	14	3123	-260
1	Jimmie Johnson	7	6.43	0	2	4	6	4.86
5	Jimmie Johnson	7	4.57	0	0	1	3	12.29
10	Jimmie Johnson	7	8.43	1	3	3	3	14.86
19	Jimmie Johnson	7	10.86	0	0	1	2	18.71
7	Juan Montoya	22	1	0	1	11	2781	-602
18	Juan Montoya	5	22.00	0	0	0	1	18.40
29	Juan Montoya	5	16.80	0	0	1	1	24.40
35	Juan Montoya	5	21.20	0	0	0	1	27.60
35	Juan Montoya	5	17.60	0	0	0	1	27.80
8	Kasey Kahne	22	0	1	4	9	2754	-629
9	Kasey Kahne	7	13.57	1	0	2	4	13.57
18	Kasey Kahne	7	14.86	1	1	3	3	18.71
21	Kasey Kahne	7	12.71	0	0	1	3	20.43
22	Kasey Kahne	7	8.86	1	1	1	3	22.14
4	Kurt Busch	22	0	1	6	12	2902	-481
6	Kurt Busch	7	13.43	0	1	1	3	12.57
15	Kurt Busch	7	22.57	1	1	1	2	15.86
17	Kurt Busch	7	19.43	0	0	1	3	19.14
20	Kurt Busch	7	13.43	0	1	1	3	20.00
13	Kyle Busch	22	1	3	5	7	2627	-756
1	Kyle Busch	7	18.43	0	2	4	6	5.71
2	Kyle Busch	7	13.14	0	1	5	5	6.71
10	Kyle Busch	7	7.00	0	0	1	2	14.29
12	Kyle Busch	7	11.57	0	1	2	2	16.43
17	Marcos Ambrose	22	0	0	3	6	2416	-967
6	Marcos Ambrose	1	13.00	0	0	0	1	10.00
7	Marcos Ambrose	1	21.00	0	0	0	0	11.00
47	Marcos Ambrose	2	36.00	0	0	0	0	33.50
50	Marcos Ambrose	2	36.00	0	0	0	0	37.00
11	Mark Martin	22	4	4	6	11	2716	-667
3	Mark Martin	7	8.57	0	0	4	4	9.57
8	Mark Martin	3	6.67	1	0	0	2	13.33
19	Mark Martin	7	15.57	0	1	2	3	19.29
26	Mark Martin	7	8.43	1	0	1	2	23.71
12	Matt Kenseth	22	1	2	4	8	2685	-698
3	Matt Kenseth	7	20.57	0	0	4	5	6.86
6	Matt Kenseth	7	16.57	0	1	4	4	12.57
12	Matt Kenseth	7	17.57	0	1	2	4	15.14
28	Matt Kenseth	7	19.29	0	0	0	2	22.86
9	Ryan Newman	22	1	0	5	9	2727	-656
8	Ryan Newman	7	15.29	0	0	1	4	12.57
14	Ryan Newman	7	11.71	0	0	0	5	15.57
24	Ryan Newman	7	10.00	1	0	0	0	22.86
32	Ryan Newman	7	19.43	0	0	0	0	25.57
1	Tony Stewart	22	0	3	13	18	3383	0
1	Tony Stewart	7	18.00	0	0	4	6	6.00
3	Tony Stewart	7	24.29	0	0	3	5	11.57
4	Tony Stewart	7	18.00	0	1	4	5	9.29
16	Tony Stewart	7	11.71	0	0	1	2	16.00
1	Tony Stewart	22	0	3	13	18	3383	0

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