Racing Junky

Last weekend our Sprint Cup guys visited the Talladega Super Speedway for the first time in the 2008 season, for the Aaron's 499 on Sunday afternoon. Joe Nemechek took the pole for this race and led the field to the green flag on but his lead was short lived. Tony Stewart jumped into the lead and led a majority of the early laps until Dale Earnhardt Jr caught up to him and took the lead. As the crowd roared it's approval, fate would have it that Stewart and Dale Jr would bang into each other and cause the first big multi car accident. After the cleanup, the race restarted with Denny Hamlin moving to the lead. Hamlin and a host of others would lead laps until the race was drawing to a close, when Jimmie Johnson pushed Michael Waltrip to the lead. With the race on the line, Kyle Busch cut down below the yellow line, pushed Johnson aside and too over the lead. Busch would be leading the race on the white flag lap when the "big one" happened behind him and brought the race to an end. Busch winning the Talladega race was quite the surprise to many as he had never had any luck there before, being lucky if he finished a race. It was his second win already in the 2008 season and you would have to label Kyle as a true contender this year for the Sprint Cup championship. This week, the Sprint Cup series heads to the Richmond International Raceway this weekend for the Crown Royal 400 on Saturday night. The Richmond track is a 3/4 mile oval track with banking in the turns of 14 degrees, 8 degrees on the front stretch and 2 degrees on the back stretch. It is considered a very fast short track with speeds around 100 miles per hour in the corners and 150 miles per hour in the straight away's. The brakes will get a huge workout in this race. The record for qualifying here is in the 129 mile per hour range, while the race record is 108 miles per hour. This race will go 400 laps. The race will be run in the COT (Car of Today) and was used in both races last year, so the teams will have a better grasp on the car this year. With that in mind lets look at the last 10 races at the Richmond International Raceway and look at the drivers that can be viewed as the best at this track and which drivers just have had no luck there.

In the last 10 races at Richmond, there have been ten different pole winners. That sort of is unusual but then again Richmond is a unique track. The pole winners include Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin, Mike Skinner, Terry Labonte, Brian Vickers, Jeff Gordon and finally Jimmie Johnson won the pole there last fall. Taking the pole at Richmond has turned into a win for two of these drivers; Kasey Kahne in the spring race of 2004 and Jimmie Johnson won from the ploe last fall. The average finish of the pole winner is pretty good when compared to other tracks at 10.20. The pole setter has finished in the Top 10 in five of the last ten races. On the other hand, starting anywhere in the Top 10 other then the pole has produced the race winner in every single race in the last ten races, including Jimmie Johnson in both of the races at Richmond last year. The average starting position of the race winner is an incredible 4.30. In the history of the Richmond track, the race has never yet to be won from anyone making a provisional start. Denny Hamlin is the king of qualifying at Richmond with a 4.75 average start followed by Jeff Gordon with a 8.10 average. Ryan Newman is next up with a 9.30 starting average. Rounding out the Top 5 are Carl Edwards with a 9.71 average and finally Mark Martin has a 9.90 average start.

The driver with the top record at Richmond is none other then Kyle Busch, who has been in just six races at Richmond but everyone but one of them have produced a Top 5 finish. He has finished 4th twice, 2nd twice, 5th and then finally became somewhat human last fall when he finished 20th. That record is impressive no matter what track it happens on but is particularly impressive for the Richmond track. When you add those six finishes up, you come up with a series best average finish at Richmond of 6.17. Busch has a average starting average of 14.50, which means he picks up about eight positions a race. Gibbs cars have a pretty good history at Richmond and Kyle has done everything he can to solidify that claim on other tracks this year. Kyle already has two wins under his belt this year and with that he would also have to be considered one of the favorites to win the race on Saturday night. The next driver up is Denny Hamlin, who like Busch is taking advantage of the new Toyota COT cars at Gibbs racing. Hamlin has been pretty hot aso far this year and has done particuliarly well on the shorter tracks like Richmond and he has to be excited coming into Richmond with the 2nd best record. He has been in only four races here but he has learned this track well. He has the series best qualifying average of 4.75 which includes taking a pole here. He has parleyed that great starting average into a 6.50 finishing average, so he loses about two positions per race. His worst finish here came in 2006 when he finished 15th. In his other three races he finished 2nd, 3rd and 6th last fall. With the way he has been performing this year, he will be a real threat to win his 2nd race of the year this weekend at Richmond.

Pulling up with the 3rd best average at Richmond belongs to Kevin Harvick, who has put up a 9.20 finishing average over the last 10 races. Kevin has not been one of the best qualifiers at Richmond with a 17.20 starting average but because if his aggressive driving style, he is able to motor forward to the tune of over eight positions a race. He has won a race here and has added three Top 5 and seven Top 10 finishes here in those last 10 races at this track. His last six races here have all produced Top 10 finishes. Harvick seems like he has been up and down so far this year but has shown signs of returning to his old self. With an improved COT package under him from RCR, I would say that a win at Saturday night at Richmond wouldn't be out of the question but a Top 10 finish might be a more reasonable expectation. Up next is another RCR driver who is having a pretty good 2008 season so far this year and that guy is Clint Bowyer. Like Hamlin, Bowyer has been in four races at Richmond with one resulting in a 10th place finish, another a 12th place finish. Then last year, he came home in 9th place and 12th place. Total that up and that gives him a 10.75 finishing average. He has an 19.00 starting average so he winds up moving up thru the field to the tune of eight positions per race. It would not surprise me what so ever if he notched another Top 10 this weekend. A win is going to come one of these weekends in the 2008 season for Clint, I just don't see it at Richmond Saturday night.

Next up is a guy that races part-time and if you haven't guesses that guy is Mark Martin. Martin owns the 5th best finishing average at Richmond of 11.20 and he is also a Top 5 qualifier here with a starting average of 9.90, so he manages to hold his position pretty well during the race. Martin has never won here in the last 10 races but he has picked up three Top 5's and has notched four Top 10's in his last ten races he has been in here. After taking last weekend off at Talladega, this will be a big race for Martin as he competes against the full time guys. That seems to be a tall task but so far this year it seems like Mark is up to that task. He has looked pretty good in most of all the races this year but last year here he could only manage 17th and 21st place finishes on this track. Not quite sure what Mark is capbale of this weekend but if past records are any indicator, he might just have a big night Saturday. In 6th place is a guy that we rarely see in any of our Top 10 lists but David Ragan cracks the Top 10 list at Richmond. Ragan has a 11.50 and has a starting average of 18.50, so he manages to pick up seven positions per race. In his two races here, both last year, he finished 20th in the spring race and came back to finish 3rd in the fall race. Of the Ford drivers, i would have to give Ragan about as big as chance for a big night as any other Ford driver in the Crown Royal 400.

The 7th best average belongs to fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr, who owns a 11.80 finishing average in the ten races he has been in at this track. Dale Jr. also is a Top 15 qualifier here with a 16.10 average start. Once the races get under way at Richmond, he has advanced his starting position very well, picking up about five positions per race. He just has been great at this track with two wins under his belt, four Top 5 and four Top 10 finishes. Outside those finishes, he has finished 30th in one race but the rest have all been in the Top 20 somewhere. He hasn't won a race now for quite awhile and considering how his year has been going, this may be his best chance to finally win a race this year. You know all eyes will be on him and you have to like his chances of picking up his first victory in the 2008 season at Richmond this weekend. Ryan Newman checks in with the 8th best average at Richmond with a 12.90 average finish. Part of the reason that Newman is in this Top 10 list is the fact that he qualifies here so well, a series 4th best 9.30 starting average. Newman's averages here are somewhat slanted since in his ten races here, he has won a race, picked up a pair of runner up finishes, a 3rd place, an 8th place finish, a 9th place finish, an 11th place finish last fall, a 12th and a pair of 20th place finishes. He was in an accident in this race in 2003 that caused him to finish 39th so that hurts his averages here a great deal. Overall then, Newman has a record at Richmond that includes that win, two Top 5's and five Top 10 finishes in his ten races here. You can bet your money that Newman will qualify well but he needs to finish what he starts, something that outside Daytona this year, he hasn't done on a regular basis for awhile. Newman will have his hands full on Saturday keeping up with the Chevrolets and Toyota's but if a Dodge driver can get it done at Richmond, it has to be Newman.

The final two drivers to crack the Top 10 list includes Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart. Matt Kenseth finds his way into this weeks Top 10 list with the 9th best finishing average of 13.10. Qualifying is not the normal problem it is at other tracks for him as he manages to qualify pretty well here 18.70 average. Kenseth manages to pick up an average of about five positions per race. Kenseth has not won here yet but does have a pair of Top 5 finishes and six Top 10's in his last ten races here. Kenseth finished 10th and 14th here last year and I am not looking for too much more then that this week. Even with the big improvement that Roush has shown in the COT cars, that hasn't stood out on the shorter tracks. Kenseth has been up and down this season and just how well he will do Saturday will be anybodies guess but judging from his history at this track, it could be a good night. Tony Stewart comes up next in the final and the 10th place position. Tony has a 13.40 average finish at Richmond in his last ten races there. He picks up about five positions per race, after having a starting average of 18.10. Tony has won here in the past but not in the last ten races. In the last ten races, his resume includes three Top 5 and six Top 10 finishes on his Richmond resume. As good as Tony has been here in the past, you would just have to believe that he has a real shot at winning this race on Saturday night. Seems hard to believe that his teammates have won races alreday in 2008 and Tony has been shut out. If he qualifies well here, I think we could see some fireworks from Tony.

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
1	Kyle Busch	6	14.50	0	0	5	5	6.17
2	Denny Hamlin	4	4.75	1	0	2	3	6.50
3	Kevin Harvick	10	17.20	1	1	3	7	9.20
4	Clint Bowyer	4	19.00	0	0	0	2	10.75
5	Mark Martin	10	9.90	0	0	3	4	11.20
6	David Ragan	2	18.50	0	0	1	1	11.50
7	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	10	16.10	0	2	4	4	11.80
8	Ryan Newman	10	9.30	1	1	2	5	12.90
9	Matt Kenseth	10	18.70	0	0	2	6	13.10
10	Tony Stewart	10	18.10	0	0	3	6	13.40

Now that was the 10 best drivers at Richmond in the last 10 races, now lets look at the drivers who just haven't had a lot of luck at Richmond during their careers, who we refer to as the Bottom 10 Drivers at Richmond.

I normally don't spend a lot of time going over the drivers who are not a their best at certain tracks and you can pretty much see for yourself who the are. Some make the list every week and other make a rare appearance in the Bottom 10. The one that really jumps out at you here is Martin Truex Jr who has a 31.00 average finish in his four races at Richmond. Truex's best finish has been a 15th place finish while his other three finishes were 28th, 40th and 41st. He can ill afford to keep having so-so races this year if he wants to find himself in the Chase this year. Keep your eye on him and the rest of these guys on Saturday night and see if maybe they can improve their averages at Richmond.

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
38	Scott Riggs	8	24.00	0	0	0	1	27.88
39	Robby Gordon	10	31.40	0	0	1	1	28.30
40	Brian Vickers	7	21.00	1	0	0	1	28.43
41	Bill Elliott	3	28.33	0	0	0	0	28.67
42	Kyle Petty	10	26.70	0	0	0	0	29.20
43	Kenny Wallace	6	29.83	0	0	0	0	30.17
44	Martin Truex Jr.	4	19.25	0	0	0	0	31.00
45	David Stremme	5	24.20	0	0	0	0	31.60
46	David Gilliland	3	35.33	0	0	0	0	33.33
47	Juan Montoya	0	15.50	0	0	0	0	33.50

So there you have the best and the worst drivers at the Richmond International Raceway. How well they do in first race of the season at Richmond is anybodies guess but these statistics are a good barometer. I hope all these drivers will have better luck on Saturday night.

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
1	Kyle Busch	6	14.50	0	0	5	5	6.17
2	Denny Hamlin	4	4.75	1	0	2	3	6.50
3	Kevin Harvick	10	17.20	1	1	3	7	9.20
4	Clint Bowyer	4	19.00	0	0	0	2	10.75
5	Mark Martin	10	9.90	0	0	3	4	11.20
6	David Ragan	2	18.50	0	0	1	1	11.50
7	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	10	16.10	0	2	4	4	11.80
8	Ryan Newman	10	9.30	1	1	2	5	12.90
9	Matt Kenseth	10	18.70	0	0	2	6	13.10
10	Tony Stewart	10	18.10	0	0	3	6	13.40
11	Bobby Labonte	10	21.70	0	0	2	4	13.40
12	Greg Biffle	10	12.40	1	0	2	5	14.30
13	Jeremy Mayfield	7	17.57	0	1	2	3	14.43
14	J.J. Yeley	4	31.25	0	0	0	1	14.75
15	Kurt Busch	10	15.90	0	1	2	4	16.60
16	Jeff Burton	10	13.60	0	0	1	3	16.90
17	Jimmie Johnson	10	12.50	1	2	3	3	17.00
18	Kasey Kahne	8	14.13	1	1	2	4	18.25
19	Jeff Gordon	10	8.10	1	0	3	5	18.30
20	Michael Waltrip	7	26.86	0	0	0	2	19.71
21	Carl Edwards	7	9.71	0	0	0	2	20.57
22	Paul Menard	2	40.50	0	0	0	0	21.00
23	David Reutimann	2	19.00	0	0	0	0	21.00
24	Sterling Marlin	9	26.89	0	0	0	1	21.11
25	Elliott Sadler	10	22.70	0	0	0	1	21.20
26	Kenny Schrader	8	31.63	0	0	0	1	21.75
27	Travis Kvapil	4	22.75	0	0	0	0	22.00
28	Reed Sorenson	4	28.75	0	0	0	0	22.50
29	Dave Blaney	9	23.56	0	0	1	1	24.44
30	Casey Mears	10	16.70	0	0	0	0	25.00
31	Jamie McMurray	10	27.10	0	0	0	2	26.10
32	Mike Skinner	2	13.50	1	0	0	0	26.50
33	Joe Nemechek	10	16.80	0	1	1	1	26.50
34	Dale Jarrett	9	28.56	0	0	0	0	26.89
35	John Andretti	3	30.33	0	0	0	0	27.00
36	A.J. Allmendinger	2	20.00	0	0	0	0	27.50
37	Johnny Sauter	6	28.67	0	0	1	1	27.83
38	Scott Riggs	8	24.00	0	0	0	1	27.88
39	Robby Gordon	10	31.40	0	0	1	1	28.30
40	Brian Vickers	7	21.00	1	0	0	1	28.43
41	Bill Elliott	3	28.33	0	0	0	0	28.67
42	Kyle Petty	10	26.70	0	0	0	0	29.20
43	Kenny Wallace	6	29.83	0	0	0	0	30.17
44	Martin Truex Jr.	4	19.25	0	0	0	0	31.00
45	David Stremme	5	24.20	0	0	0	0	31.60
46	David Gilliland	3	35.33	0	0	0	0	33.33
47	Juan Montoya	0	15.50	0	0	0	0	33.50

the Top 10 DRIVERS - Bottom 10 Drivers

at Richmond international speedway

by Skip Jefferson