Racing Junky

Last weekend we all got to witness Mark Martin win the first race of the year in the 2009 version of NASCAR's Chase to the Championship at the New Hampshire Speedway. This was not a track that Mark had a fond love of prior to this race but he may have found a new found liking for it considering that performance. With the win, Martin let the other drivers in the Chase to the Championship, know that he could be a force to be reckoned with over the last 9 races of the 2009 season. Still, a majority of the other Chase contenders had reasonably good days including the favorite to repeat for the 4th straight year, Jimmie Johnson who hung around the Top 5 all day and finished 4th at the drop of the checkered flag. When we look at the Top 10 and Bottom 10 list at New Hampshire, the win by Martin was by far his best finish in the last 10 races there despite his 4th place overall rating during those races. I for one came away feeling very happy that Martin came away with the win and has a better chance then most to come away the 2009 Champion, which would be a feel good outcome for most all NASCAR fans. But in order to take that next step, Martin will have to keep that pace up this weekend as we will have our 2nd of 10 races in the Championship series. The Chase contenders head to Dover International Speedway this weekend for the AAA 400. The Dover track is a 1 mile oval track with banking in the turns of 24 degrees, 9 degrees on the front stretch and 9 degrees on the back stretch. It is considered a very fast short track with speeds around 110 miles per hour in the corners and 160 miles per hour in the straight away's. The brakes will get a huge workout in this race. The record for qualifying here is in the 159 mile per hour range, while the race record is 108 miles per hour. This race will go 400 laps. With that in mind lets look at the last 10 races at the Dover International Raceway and who are the best and worst drivers during that time on the Dover track.

Two drivers have taken more then one pole in the last ten races at Dover, Ryan Newman has won three poles at Dover while Jeff Gordon has two under his belt. Other pole winners include Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Jeremy Mayfield and David Reutimann took the pole in the spring race this year. Weather claimed the other pole. Taking the pole at Dover, unlike some of the other tracks we have looked at this year, has not turned into a win even once in the last 10 races and the best finish by a pole sitter has been Ryan Newman in 2007 when he finished 2nd. However, the pole setter has finished in the Top 10 in seven of the last 10 races and has finished in the Top 15 in every race except for one and that was Reutimann in the spring race where he finished 18th. The average finish of the pole sitter in the last 10 races is 7.70. Qualifying and starting anywhere in the Top 10 other then the pole has made winners out six drivers in the last 10 races. Interestingly three of the other race winners all started from the 19th starting spot, including both races in 2006. Jimmie Johnson won the spring race this year after starting 8th. The average starting position of the race winner is 10.40. The race has yet to be won from anyone making a provisional start in the history of the track. Ryan Newman has the best qualifying average at Dover with an outstanding 7.80 average start. Kurt Busch is next up with 8.80 average, followed by Greg Biffle with a 9.70 average. Rounding out the Top 5 are Elliott Sadler with a 12.20 average and Matt Kenseth, a notorious bad qualifier, does well here with a 13.40 average.

The top guy this week at Dover is a guy that we see every once in awhile we see crack our Top 10 lists and that guy is Greg Biffle, Roush Ford #16. Biffle has accumulated a 5. 30 average finish after having a 9.70 starting average. In the last 10 races at Dover, Biffle has continued to get better and better the more experience he gets under his belt. In the last 10 races, Biffle has taken a pole and notched himself a pair of wins ( 2005, 2008 ). He has also added a series high, six Top 5's and also eight Top 10's which is also a series high. In the spring race this year he managed to finish 3rd despite the struggles of the Roush cars. Coming into this weekends race, you would have to consider Biffle one of the favorites to walk away with a win. Jimmie Johnson, Hendrick Chevrolet #48, is next up in 2nd place spot in this weeks Top 10 list and him being in our Top 10 lists is normal. . Jimmie owns a 7.60 finishing average after compiling a 13.50 starting average. As you can see that he does advance thru the field to the tune of six positions per race. In the last 10 races at Dover, Jimmie has taken a pole and also two wins. One of those wins came in the spring race this year. Also in his resume is four Top 5 finishes to go along with seven Top 10 finishes. This is the time of year, the last 10 races, that Johnson and team have proven to be the ultimate warriors. No matter where they started the Chase, they have turned it up enough to win three straight championships. Johnson is one of the favorites to come away the winner this weekend and if he does, the rest of the Chase drivers will have due notice that he is going to be real dangerous over the last eight races.

The third best driver at Dover is none other then Carl Edwards, Roush Ford #99, who owns a finishing average of 7.60 finishing average in the last ten races he has been in at this track. Carl is a pretty good qualifier here also, having a starting average of 15.50 so he is able to move up thru the field very well, picking up about eight positions per race. Edwards has been good at this track in the last ten races we are looking at, he has produced a win ( 2007 ), five Top 5's and has finished in the Top 10 in all but three races. That means occasionally he is human here but not very often. In the spring race this year, Edwards looked very good most of the race and ended up with a seventh place finish. It appears that broken foot hasn't seemed to have bother him all that much and he should be a driver to keep an eye on considering his history there. Next up is the guy who won the last race this year and leads the series with five wins, that guy is Mark Martin, Hendrick Chevrolet #5. In his last ten races at Dover, Martin checks in with a 8.00 finishing average. Martin is a pretty good qualifier with an average starting position of 15.80 so he manages to up about eight positions a race. Martin's record at does not include a win in the last 10 races but he does have five Top 5 finishes to go along with eight Top 10 finishes. Martin has been on a roll all year and many consider him as their sentimental favorite to win the 2009 Championship so a Top 5 finish in Sunday's race would be another huge step in that direction.

In fifth place in this weeks Top 10 list is one of those RCR guys, Jeff Burton, RCR Chevrolet #31, who checks in at Dover with a 11.30 finishing average in the last ten races he has been in at Dover. He is one of the lousier qualifier's at Dover with a 25.80 average start. Jeff ends up picking up about fourteen positions over the course of the races. Jeff has a win under his belt here back in 2006 plus he has two Top 5 finishes to go along with five Top 10 finishes. He finished 16th in the spring race which has been a problem all year for most of the RCR crowd, the lack of competitive finishes. Week to week you keep expecting Burton and crowd to start performing up to his pre-season expectations but it always seems to be one thing or the other that costs him a good finish. I for one am pulling for him to have a big day on Sunday and pad his Dover statistics. The 6th best overall average in the last ten races belongs to Ryan Newman, Stewart-Hass Chevrolet #39, who checks in at Dover with a 11.70 finishing average. Qualifying has always been his strong suite and his qualifying record at Dover shows that he the best qualifier of the Top 10 drivers this week, checking in with a 7.80 average start. The problem with qualifying that well, is there is normal only one direction to go and that is backwards and Newman does that to the tune of four positions per race. His resume here includes a win, which came in 2004. In addition, he has added to three Top 5 finishes and five Top 10 finishes. Newman seems to be up and down a lot lately and hasn't made a lot of noise on the track. He has however, like many of the drivers in this weeks Top 10 list, has done well here over his career so there is hope that maybe he can crack the Top 10 this week.

Martin Truex Jr ( DEI Chevrolet, #1 ) has to be to be thinking next year after having a very unspectacular season in 2009 but he has to have high hope here at Dover as he rises in with the 7th best finishing average of 12.71. Martin is a so-so qualifier at Dover, with a 19.43 starting average so he moves forward very nicely once the races get underway to the tune of seven spots on average. Martin actually has won at this track back in 2007 so there is hope this week for a decent finish. He has one Top 5 finish and that was that win to go along with three Top 10 finishes. There is no challenge for Truex Jr and team other then to get the best finish possible and at least start a trend of better finishes before the end of the 2009 season. The next driver up is a guy that makes a lot of our Top 10 lists, no matter what track the race is at and is another Roush driver, Matt Kenseth, Roush Ford #17. Matt checks in at Dover with a finishing average of 13.50 in his last ten races on this track. Qualifying is not a problem at this track as he is one of the better qualifiers here with a 13.40 average. Kenseth, because he does qualify so well here has still has not managed to pick up or lose any spots during the race, meaning that he finishes about where he qualifies. Kenseth has won a race at the Dover track back in 2006 and also has five Top 5's and seven Top 10's in his Dover resume. Matt has struggled since opening the season with two straight wins and he missed the Chase this year for the first time since the Chase began. Kenseth and team can start working on getting back on track for next year this weekend but he will have his hands full with some of these other guys. I think a Top 10 finish would be a good day for Kenseth.

The final two drivers to crack the Top 10 list this week are Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Clint Bowyer, RCR Chevrolet #33, checks in as the 9th best driver at Dover with a 14.29 finishing average. He is also a so-so qualifier with a starting average of 21.71. He certainly knows how to get to the front no matter where he starts picking up an average of seven positions a race. Clint has been in just seven races but in those he managed to produce three Top 10 finishes. Clint finished 11th in the spring race and has consistently been one of the best RCR drivers no matter what track they have been on. With all the struggles we have seen at RCR this year, it is hard to say how Clint will do this weekend but like Kenseth, I think a Top 10 finish would be a victory for Bowyer at Dover. The final driver this week, has not blessed a lot our Top 10 lists this year but that is because he is a rookie and that is Joey Logano, Gibbs Chevrolet #20, who checks in with an 15.00 average finish. He did that in his only race here this spring and in that one he qualified 21st so he did manage to pick up 6 spots over the course of that race. Logano is still working out the kinks with his team and you can't have high hopes for him this weekend. Another Top 15 would be a good finish at Dover.

Now that was the 10 best drivers at Dover in the last 10 races, now lets look at the drivers who have the worst records at Dover, that just have had no luck on this challenging track.

I normally don't spend a lot of time going over the drivers who are worst drivers at certain tracks and you can pretty much see for yourself who the are. Some make the list every week and other make a rare appearance in the Bottom 10. Keep your eye on all of them on Sunday to see if maybe they can improve their averages here at Dover.

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
44	Michael McDowell	2	30.00	0	0	0	0	29.50
45	Tony Raines	9	32.56	0	0	0	0	31.33
46	A.J. Allmendinger	5	19.80	0	0	0	0	31.60
47	Scott Wimmer	5	33.20	0	0	0	0	32.00
48	David Stremme	5	30.60	0	0	0	0	33.00
49	Bill Elliott	2	19.00	0	0	0	0	34.00
50	Patrick Carpentier	2	26.50	0	0	0	0	35.00
51	John Andretti	2	35.00	0	0	0	0	35.50
52	Scott Speed	1	23.00	0	0	0	0	37.00
53	Mike Skinner	1	34.00	0	0	0	0	41.00

So there you have the best and the worst drivers at the Dover International Speedway. How well they do this weekend is anybodies guess but this is a good barometer. I hope all these drivers will have better luck on Sunday in the AAA 400.

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
11	Jeff Gordon	10	13.80	2	0	3	5	15.20
12	Kyle Busch	9	15.89	0	1	5	5	15.33
13	Casey Mears	10	28.00	0	0	0	3	16.10
14	Jamie McMurray	10	14.90	0	0	1	4	17.40
15	Jeremy Mayfield	6	9.67	1	0	0	2	18.17
16	Kurt Busch	10	8.80	0	0	3	4	18.70
17	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	10	13.90	0	0	1	3	18.90
18	Kevin Harvick	10	20.20	0	0	1	2	19.90
19	Tony Stewart	10	23.60	0	0	1	3	20.00
20	David Reutimann	4	16.25	1	0	0	0	20.00
21	Brian Vickers	10	17.50	0	0	0	1	21.40
22	Bobby Labonte	10	21.10	0	0	0	1	22.30
23	Dave Blaney	7	30.29	0	0	0	1	22.57
24	David Ragan	6	29.17	0	0	0	0	23.00
25	Elliott Sadler	10	12.20	0	0	0	2	23.10
26	Michael Waltrip	10	28.70	0	0	0	1	23.10
27	Reed Sorenson	7	27.43	0	0	0	0	23.14
28	Travis Kvapil	6	21.67	0	0	0	0	23.33
29	Paul Menard	4	30.25	0	0	0	0	24.00
30	Sam Hornish Jr.	3	17.67	0	0	0	0	24.33
31	Kasey Kahne	10	15.60	0	0	0	2	24.40
32	Juan Montoya	5	18.20	0	0	0	1	24.40
33	Mike Wallace	2	36.00	0	0	0	0	25.00
34	Denny Hamlin	7	16.29	0	0	1	2	25.57
35	Marcos Ambrose	2	24.50	0	0	0	0	26.00
36	David Gilliland	6	26.67	0	0	0	0	26.33
37	Regan Smith	3	29.33	0	0	0	0	26.67
38	Scott Riggs	9	18.00	0	0	0	0	26.78
39	Terry Labonte	1	38.00	0	0	0	0	27.00
40	Sterling Marlin	6	23.33	0	0	0	0	27.67
41	Robby Gordon	10	35.50	0	0	0	1	27.80
42	Mike Bliss	3	32.00	0	0	0	0	29.33
43	Joe Nemechek	10	21.90	0	0	0	0	29.40

Top 10 - Bottom 10 Drivers

at Dover INTERNATIONAL raceWAY

by Skip Jefferson